Disasters Loom over South Asia with Forecast of Hotter, Wetter Monsoon

The Himalayan mountain range of Annapurna and Mount Machapuchare (top, C) are pictured from Nepal's Pokhara on June 7, 2025. (Photo by Prakash MATHEMA / AFP)
The Himalayan mountain range of Annapurna and Mount Machapuchare (top, C) are pictured from Nepal's Pokhara on June 7, 2025. (Photo by Prakash MATHEMA / AFP)
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Disasters Loom over South Asia with Forecast of Hotter, Wetter Monsoon

The Himalayan mountain range of Annapurna and Mount Machapuchare (top, C) are pictured from Nepal's Pokhara on June 7, 2025. (Photo by Prakash MATHEMA / AFP)
The Himalayan mountain range of Annapurna and Mount Machapuchare (top, C) are pictured from Nepal's Pokhara on June 7, 2025. (Photo by Prakash MATHEMA / AFP)

Communities across Asia's Himalayan Hindu Kush region face heightened disaster risks this monsoon season with temperatures and rainfall expected to exceed normal levels, experts warned on Thursday.

Temperatures are expected to be up to two degrees Celsius hotter than average across the region, with forecasts for above-average rains, according to a monsoon outlook released by Kathmandu-based International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) on Wednesday.

"Rising temperatures and more extreme rain raise the risk of water-induced disasters such as floods, landslides, and debris flows, and have longer-term impacts on glaciers, snow reserves, and permafrost," Arun Bhakta Shrestha, a senior adviser at ICIMOD, said in a statement.

The summer monsoon, which brings South Asia 70-80 percent of its annual rainfall, is vital for agriculture and therefore for the livelihoods of millions of farmers and for food security in a region that is home to around two billion people.

However, it also brings destruction through landslides and floods every year. Melting glaciers add to the volume of water, while unregulated construction in flood-prone areas exacerbates the damage.

"What we have seen over the years are also cascading disasters where, for example, heavy rainfall can lead to landslides, and landslides can actually block rivers. We need to be aware about such possibilities," Saswata Sanyal, manager of ICIMOD's Disaster Risk Reduction work, told AFP.

Last year's monsoon season brought devastating landslides and floods across South Asia and killed hundreds of people, including more than 300 in Nepal.

This year, Nepal has set up a monsoon response command post, led by its National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority.

"We are coordinating to stay prepared and to share data and alerts up to the local level for early response. Our security forces are on standby for rescue efforts," said agency spokesman Ram Bahadur KC.

Weather-related disasters are common during the monsoon season from June to September but experts say climate change, coupled with urbanization, is increasing their frequency and severity.

The UN's World Meteorological Organization said last year that increasingly intense floods and droughts are a "distress signal" of what is to come as climate change makes the planet's water cycle ever more unpredictable.



India’s Monsoon Back on Track, Heatwave to Ease, Says Weather Officials 

School children use umbrellas to cover themselves from the rain as they walk to school, in New Delhi, India May 2, 2025. (Reuters)
School children use umbrellas to cover themselves from the rain as they walk to school, in New Delhi, India May 2, 2025. (Reuters)
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India’s Monsoon Back on Track, Heatwave to Ease, Says Weather Officials 

School children use umbrellas to cover themselves from the rain as they walk to school, in New Delhi, India May 2, 2025. (Reuters)
School children use umbrellas to cover themselves from the rain as they walk to school, in New Delhi, India May 2, 2025. (Reuters)

India's monsoon has revived after stalling for more than a fortnight, and rains are set to cover central parts of the country this week, bringing relief from the heatwave in the grain-growing northern plains, two senior weather officials said on Monday.

The monsoon, the lifeblood of the country's nearly $4 trillion economy, delivers nearly 70% of the rain that India needs to water farms and replenish aquifers and reservoirs.

Nearly half of India's farmland, which has no irrigation, depends on the annual June-September rains for crop growth.

The monsoon has revived after a fortnight as a favorable weather system has developed in the Bay of Bengal, which would help the monsoon to cover entire central India this week, an official of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) told Reuters.

Monsoon rains on Monday covered almost the entire western state of Maharashtra and entered into neighboring Gujarat and central state of Madhya Pradesh, the official said.

The Monsoon's onset over Kerala occurred on May 24 and quickly covered southern, northeastern and some parts of western India ahead of its usual schedule, but its progress has stalled since May 29, according to an IMD chart that tracked the monsoon's progress.

The monsoon has gained the required momentum, and heavy rainfall is likely over west coast, central and some parts of north India in next ten days, which will significantly bring down temperatures, another weather official said.

India has received 31% lower rainfall than average in the first half of June, but in the second half the country is set to receive above average rainfall, the official said.

Monsoon rains are set to progress quickly in the next few days and could cover most parts of the country before the end of June, the official said.

Summer rains usually fall in Kerala around June 1 before spreading nationwide by mid-July, allowing farmers to plant crops such as rice, corn, cotton, soybeans and sugarcane.